According to eMarketer’s updated ecommerce and retail spending forecast, US ecommerce sales will increase 18 percent to $709.78 billion this year—an all-time high since the researcher began calculating the metric in 2008—as a result of store closures and stay-at-home orders.
In February, eMarketer predicted total US retail sales would slightly grow by 2.8 percent to $5.621 trillion. However, due to COVID, total US retail sales will fall 10.5 percent to $4.894 trillion, a steeper decline than the 8.2 percent drop induced by the recession in 2009 and a level not seen since 2016. What’s more, total retail sales won’t rebound until 2022, when they’re expected to reach $5.549 trillion.
In addition to an 18 percent increase in growth, ecommerce will reach 14.5 percent of total retail sales in 2020, the biggest share increase in a single year. eMarketer predicts ecommerce sales will reach $765.17 billion in 2021 and $859.28 billion in 2022.
Food and beverage and health, personal care and beauty were the top two product categories growing the fastest pre-COVID-19. As consumers shift to online ordering, eMarketer has raised its forecast for food and beverage sales from 23.4 percent to 58.5 percent and health, personal care and beauty sales from 16.6 percent to 32.4 percent. Apparel and accessories will only grow 8.6 percent.
Maintaining the number one spot on the list of top 10 ecommerce retailers, Amazon will grow its market share by one percentage point to 38 percent. And, for the first time, Walmart will exceed eBay as the second US ecommerce retailer behind Amazon, with a projected increase of over 35 percent. As a result, Walmart will hold a 5.8 percent share of the ecommerce market in 2020. This will bump eBay to third, followed by Apple in fourth and Home Depot in fifth.
As ecommerce spending balloons, brick-and-mortar retail spending will continue to suffer, with an expected 14 percent decrease to $4.184 trillion.